Will this new union be anything more than a giant photo opportunity?

Some signs are promising. Far from the cameras, there was real diplomacy, promising real results. Even if the timing and details are vague, Assad and his Lebanese counterpart, Michel Suleiman, agreed to open diplomatic offices in the two countries for the first time. And even if Assad refused to shake Olmert's hand and left the room when the Israeli spoke Sunday, the two men communicated indirectly through Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who became a messenger in the ornate hallways of the Hôtel de Crillon.

In an attempt to keep the momentum going, the next meeting - of the 43 foreign ministers - is already scheduled for November. "This was not a one-off," said Eric Chevallier, a spokesman for the French Foreign Ministry. "This was an important moment and it will be followed by many others. We are determined to keep it going."

Not everyone is so optimistic. Squabbling over whether or not to call Israel a "nation-state" almost deadlocked the union's founding declaration Sunday. In the end, diplomats skirted the issue by referring to two conferences last November, one in Annapolis, Maryland, and one in Lisbon, one of which did and one did not make a reference to the term nation-state. Since no one could agree, sensitive decisions on where the union secretariat will be based and which country will provide the first secretary were postponed until the November meeting.

And even some of the successes, said Dominique Moïsi of the French Institute of International Relations, have more to do with short-term interests than long-term vision. Olmert's political future is in doubt because of corruption allegations at home, reducing his credibility to deliver on long-term promises. Assad, who has been itching to get out of political isolation, wants to return to the center of the Middle East peace process. And Sarkozy, deeply unpopular in France, is in need of a triumph. "The meeting was triumphant, but I am very skeptical about the long-term ramifications," Moïsi said.

IHT