Massive weapons shipment in full violation of UN resolutions

It's been five days since Israel seized a cargo ship reportedly carrying enough weapons and munitions for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group to fight Israel for at least one month. And for the past five days, the United Nations has failed to take any action even though Iran was caught red-handed arming a terrorist group in full violation of binding U.N. resolutions.

The cargo ship originated in Iran and was headed for Syria. The Israeli army announced it found documentation showing Iran was the point of origin for some containers on the ship, with Syria as the intended destination.

Iran regularly attempts to send weapons to Syria, and from there the shipments are smuggled to Hezbollah bases in Lebanon, Israeli security officials said.

Israel last week put on full display its find of hundreds of tons of Iranian-supplied arms, including rockets – the largest-ever weapons cache captured by Israeli forces. Israel Radio reported that advanced anti-aircraft platforms were also on board, with Rani Ben-Yehuda, the deputy commander of Israel's navy, confirming the presence of "very advanced weaponry."

The Iranian arms shipment set sail in violation of U.N. Resolution 1701, a binding resolution which ended the Second Lebanon War of 2006 and prohibits the delivery of weapons to any entity in Lebanon but the Lebanese government. The shipment also breaks multiple international laws against funding and supporting terrorist organizations.

Israel's U.N. ambassador last week complained to the international body about Iran's blatant disregard for international law, but no response has been forthcoming from U.N. officials.

WorldNetDaily

Lebanese Opposition Agrees to Join Unity Government

Lebanon's opposition bloc of lawmakers, led by Hezbollah, said over the weekend it had agreed to join a unity government with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, a move that could end more than four months of political deadlock.

Mr. Hariri has yet to announce his 30-member cabinet, and a final accord could snag in coming days. But opposition officials have given their clearest signal yet that they will share power with the Western-backed bloc of lawmakers that Mr. Hariri led to victory in June parliamentary elections.

A deal, if consummated, would represent a significant easing of political tensions in Lebanon. It would also mark a deepening regional détente between two foreign powers that have exercised outsize sway in Lebanese politics: Saudi Arabia and Syria. Lebanon has long served as a battleground for bigger Middle East and global powers. The June election pitted Mr. Hariri's bloc, backed by the U.S., European allies and Saudi Arabia, against an opposition led by Hezbollah, the Shiite political and militant group supported by Syria and Iran.

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WALL STREET JOURNAL

Lebanon establishes Arab Energy Club

A group of Lebanese analysts, specialists and academics have founded the Arab Energy Club, a Beirut forum for advanced research on energy issues.

Link

Lebanese elections

Official results released a day after Lebanon's hotly-contested parliamentary election have confirmed the pro-Western coalition has held on to its majority. Interior Minister Ziad Baroud confirmed the 14 March coalition of Saad Hariri had won 71 seats in the 128-member body, one more than four years ago.

Hassan Nasrallah, head of militant movement Hezbollah, said he accepted the outcome. "I would like to congratulate all those who won, those in the majority and those in the opposition," he said. Hezbollah-led bloc won 58 seats.

The turnout was 54%, Mr Baroud said, the highest percentage among Lebanon's three million voters since the 1975-91 civil war. Lebanon is a country of deeply-fragmented religious sects, and this election broadly pitted Shia Muslim supporters of Hezbollah against Sunni Muslims and Druze supporting the 14 March coalition.

The crucial electoral showdown had been between Christian rivals, who although they make up only one-third of the population are constitutionally guaranteed an equal half share of parliamentary seats. The influential Christian Maronite community was split between established Western-orientated factions and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of former army chief Michel Aoun, which joined the pro-Syria faction in 2006.
Analysts say another fragile unity government is likely from this result.

bbc

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Solana and Presidency both hail smooth Lebanese elections

The elections in Lebanon are an important step in the democratic evolution of the Middle East, High Representative of the CFSP Javier Solana has said. Both Solana and the EU Presidency issued statements welcoming the peaceful and orderly way in which the parliamentary elections were held on 7 June.

Euromedinfo

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Obama pledges support for new Lebanon government

"The United States will continue to support a sovereign and independent Lebanon, committed to peace, including the full implementation of all United Nations Security Council resolutions," Obama said in a statement following the election victory by a pro-Western coalition against Hezbollah and its allies.

Reuters

American Tanks For Lebanon

The U.S. is continuing its effort to rebuild the Lebanese armed forces. While Russia has recently contributed ten MiG-29 fighters, the U.S. contribution has been a lot more practical. Like over 600 hummers (about half are already there, the rest will arrive over the next four months). That's just the beginning, with 200 larger trucks and 41 155mm howitzers on the way. Recently it was announced that several dozen M-60A3 tanks would be sent as well.

Some Lebanese pundits pointed out that these tanks, which were retired by the United States in the 1990s, are no good against the new Israeli Merkava 4 (similar to the latest models of the U.S. M-1.) What these pundits didn't point out was that M-60A3s were easily able to defeat Iraqi T-72s in 1991, and are widely used in the Middle East (Turkey, Egypt, Israel, Jordan). The Lebanese generals know this, and are glad to have the M-60A3s, which are more likely to be used against Syrian T-72s, than Israeli Merkavas. The U.S. is also supplying the Lebanese with communications gear, radars, sensors, technical assistance and all manner of training.

Link

Growing trade in services and investment between EU - MPCs

The EU has been a driving force in trade in services with the Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs), which grew between 2000 and 2005 faster than trade in goods - 45% compared to 23% for exports and 77% compared to 37% for imports – according to a new publication from the MEDSTAT II project titled “European Union – Mediterranean countries: growing trade in services and investment”.

Regarding services, Europe is a dominant trading partner of Turkey, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. However, its importance as a trading partner is clearly lower in the case of Israel and Lebanon.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from Europe have also accounted for a significant share of total FDI in this region for several years now, with Turkey in particular having attracted considerable investment in 2005 and 2006.

The publication, available in English, French and Arabic, is part of the Eurostat collection "Statistics in Focus" (SiF), presenting key data and limited analysis on a specific theme.

MEDSTAT II, funded by EuropeAid's Regional Programme, aims at strengthening the capacity of the Partner Countries' National Statistics Institutes and each country's own National Statistical System in order to provide updated, timely, reliable and relevant high-quality statistical data necessary for political decision-making and to ensure good governance.

Syria Recognizes Lebanon's Sovereignty After 60 Years

Syria and Lebanon established diplomatic relations on Oct. 15, some 60 years after gaining independence from France in the mid-1940s.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh, who signed the declaration jointly with Syrian Foreign Minister Waleed al-Muallem, said Lebanese-Syrian relations were friendlier than ever.

Syrian politicians, along with a majority of their Lebanese counterparts, say the exchange of embassies is only a formality between the two brotherly states. This may be so, but the fact remains that Syria has never considered Lebanon a sovereign state. On the other hand, it saw Lebanon as an inalienable part of "Greater Syria," which once included the territory of modern Lebanon.

It is true that Syria has played a positive role in Lebanon's recent history, in particular during the 1975-1990 civil war. It deployed 35,000 soldiers to Lebanon to disengage the warring sides and prevent the country's disintegration. However, the Syrians did not leave after the civil war ended, but remained in Lebanon "to keep the peace" until 2005.

This is why some Lebanese see their "Syrian brothers" as liberators, while others curse them as occupiers. Moreover, the ruling Lebanese clans have changed their attitude toward Syria more than once, at times seeing them as friends, and other times as enemies.

Bilateral relations were most recently shattered after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. The West immediately blamed the murder on Syria's military intelligence chief, Assef Shawkat, and declared a boycott of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Syria's isolation lasted until French President Nicolas Sarkozy declared, at the Mediterranean Union Summit held in Paris last July and attended by the Syrian president, that Syria and Lebanon should establish diplomatic relations.

However, the two countries reconciled only when Lebanon elected a new president, Michel Suleiman, a figure of compromise between the pro-Western majority in parliament – the Mustaqbal movement led by Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated Rafik Hariri – and the opposition Hezbollah movement, backed by Syrian and Iranian Shiites.

This compromise has cost the pro-Western forces in Lebanon dearly, given that, at a meeting in Doha last May, they gave the opposition the right to veto bills. At the same time, a national unity government of 30 ministers was formed, in which 16 represent the ruling coalition, 11 the opposition, and three are appointed by the president.

link

Neighbours to build diplomatic ties

Lebanon's foreign minister said he expects diplomatic ties with Syria to be fully established and ambassadors to be exchanged within two months. Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh said the Cabinet will give its approval on the diplomatic ties on Thursday. Later, it will issue a separate decree for an embassy in Syria, he said. Mr Salloukh spoke two days after the presidents of Lebanon and Syria agreed to establish full diplomatic ties for the first time since the two countries gained independence from France more than 60 years ago.

The two countries also agreed to negotiate the demarcation of their border, a long standing demand of the Lebanese as they seek to normalise relations with their dominant larger neighbour.

The agreements on diplomatic ties and the border were announced during a landmark visit by President Michel Suleiman to Damascus for talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad. It was the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in three years.

Will this new union be anything more than a giant photo opportunity?

Some signs are promising. Far from the cameras, there was real diplomacy, promising real results. Even if the timing and details are vague, Assad and his Lebanese counterpart, Michel Suleiman, agreed to open diplomatic offices in the two countries for the first time. And even if Assad refused to shake Olmert's hand and left the room when the Israeli spoke Sunday, the two men communicated indirectly through Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who became a messenger in the ornate hallways of the Hôtel de Crillon.

In an attempt to keep the momentum going, the next meeting - of the 43 foreign ministers - is already scheduled for November. "This was not a one-off," said Eric Chevallier, a spokesman for the French Foreign Ministry. "This was an important moment and it will be followed by many others. We are determined to keep it going."

Not everyone is so optimistic. Squabbling over whether or not to call Israel a "nation-state" almost deadlocked the union's founding declaration Sunday. In the end, diplomats skirted the issue by referring to two conferences last November, one in Annapolis, Maryland, and one in Lisbon, one of which did and one did not make a reference to the term nation-state. Since no one could agree, sensitive decisions on where the union secretariat will be based and which country will provide the first secretary were postponed until the November meeting.

And even some of the successes, said Dominique Moïsi of the French Institute of International Relations, have more to do with short-term interests than long-term vision. Olmert's political future is in doubt because of corruption allegations at home, reducing his credibility to deliver on long-term promises. Assad, who has been itching to get out of political isolation, wants to return to the center of the Middle East peace process. And Sarkozy, deeply unpopular in France, is in need of a triumph. "The meeting was triumphant, but I am very skeptical about the long-term ramifications," Moïsi said.

IHT

Lebanon elects new president

Lebanon's parliament on Sunday elected army commander General Michel Suleiman as president.

All sides had agreed to back General Suleiman as part of a deal reached in Doha, Qatar. Qatari leadership and the Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa helped the Lebanese political parties develop national reconciliation.

The government and the opposition arrived at a deal on Wednesday after days of talks in Qatar. Under the agreement, the opposition will have the power of veto in a new cabinet of national unity

Lebanese Sunnis bitter after Hezbollah triumph

Sunni Muslims are bitter and fearful after Shiite Hezbollah's triumph in Beirut, watching their backs on the streets and some even moving to safer spots.

It is an ominous sign of how Lebanon's latest political crisis has sharply worsened sectarian tensions in a country still traumatized by its 1975-1990 civil war.

"They entered and they carried out the plan. But who did they liberate Beirut from?" Mohammed Zaghloul, a 41-year-old Sunni, asked bitterly of Hezbollah, as he sat on a street corner in the Tarik Jadideh neighborhood, once controlled by Sunni groups.

The rise in sectarian feeling could be highly damaging to Lebanon's future and have implications across the wider Middle East, already struggling with Shiite-Sunni tensions sparked by the Iraq war and Iran's rising influence.

More...

Lebanon crisis deepens

A sudden flare-up of street violence in Beirut appears to have broken an 18-month political impasse between the Western-backed government and the opposition, led by the militant Shiite Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Thursday that the pro-Western government has declared 'war' on his militant group.

This is a turning point. There can be no more cohabitation between the government and the opposition. All trust is gone," says Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a Lebanese political analyst and expert on Hezbollah "The state is going to be the focus of the struggle, symbolically and practically as well."

The showdown was triggered by a dispute over Hezbollah's private telephone network, with the government declaring the network illegal earlier this week.

"The decision is tantamount to a declaration of war ... on the resistance and its weapons in the interest of America and Israel," said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a news conference aired live on television Thursday. "Those who try to arrest us, we will arrest them. Those who shoot at us, we will shoot at them. The hand raised against us, we will cut it off."

The coming days could decide which vision of Lebanon ultimately triumphs – a liberal, Western-friendly, free-market economy and tourist hub catering to wealthy Arabs; or a key component of a regional alliance that seeks to confront Israel and thwart Western influence in the Middle East.

Many analysts predicted that the stalemate would continue for many more months as neither side could afford a confrontation that could lead to civil war.

On Wednesday, Sheikh Rashid Qabbani, the highest Sunni authority in Lebanon, used unusually harsh words to denounce Hezbollah as a "gang of outlaws," warning that Sunnis "have had enough."

Tensions in Lebanon have erupted on the streets before, but each time the rival leaderships have pulled back from the brink. This time, however, both sides appear determined to proceed along their perilous paths. "It's a showdown. No one can back down," says a European diplomat.

Hezbollah's telecom network

It has been known for some time that Hezbollah has installed a private non-commercial fiber-optic land-line telephone network to provide secure communications between its leaders and the cadres. The network is extensive, stretching from Hezbollah's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut to south Lebanon. Since the summer 2006 war with Israel, the system has spread further into the Bekaa Valley in the east and even into mainly Christian and Druze areas of the Mount Lebanon district, according to Marwan Hamade, the minister of telecommunications and a close ally of Mr. Jumblatt.

On Tuesday, after a marathon cabinet session, the government announced that Hezbollah's private network was "illegal and unconstitutional" and referred the file to the judiciary and the United Nations. The UN Security Cabinet is scheduled to discuss Thursday the latest report on the implementation of Resolution 1559, which includes a clause calling for the dismantling of "all Lebanese and non-Lebanese armed groups," a reference to Hezbollah and militant Palestinian factions.

The government also launched an investigation into the alleged monitoring of Beirut airport and dismissed the head of airport security, who is close to Mr. Berri. Hezbollah reacted angrily to the cabinet decisions.

The showdown hit the streets on Wednesday when a general strike to protest rising prices swiftly turned into a confrontation between supporters of rival factions. Hezbollah has set up barricades on the highway connecting the city center to Beirut airport and vow to remain until the government withdraws its cabinet decisions.

Christian Science Monitor

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Heavy fighting broke out between government supporters and their opponents in northern Lebanon. The heaviest clashes took place in the northern city of Tripoli, where pro-government supporters in the Tebaneh neighborhood exchanged rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine gun fire with opposition followers in Jabal Muhsin.

The fighting in the north intensified in the early hours on Sunday, but the situation calmed down later as Lebanese troops began deploying.

Meanwhile, west Beirut, a Muslim-majority area, has been mostly calm since Hezbollah and its allies seized control of many neighborhoods on Friday from Sunnis loyal to the government. In Bekaa Valley in the east, sporadic clashes took place between the two groups in different towns and villages. The road leading to the main border crossing point with Syria was still closed by pro-government supporters in retaliation for the opposition's closure of the airport road.

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora made a key concession to the Hezbollah-led opposition in a speech on Saturday, however, and the army, widely seen as a neutral force in Lebanon, afterward called for Hezbollah gunmen to withdraw from the streets of Beirut and reopen blocked roads. Most Hezbollah fighters complied, leaving just a handful of its armed allies on the streets.

The army offered Hezbollah a compromise, saying the airport security chief would retain his post and recommending that the government reverse the decision on the phone network.

That proposal - quickly embraced by both government leaders and the opposition - sharply underscored the Lebanese Army's role as the one national institution seen as neutral here. Many have feared that the army would fragment along sectarian or political lines, as it did during Lebanon's 15-year civil war.

In this crisis, as in others, the army stood passively by, unwilling to be seen as taking sides, even when street battles were taking place. Still, the army's proposal is likely to enhance the political prospects of its leader, General Michel Suleiman, who appears to be the only man both political camps are willing to accept as Lebanon's next president.

IHT.com

FEMIP finance contracts in Mediterranean Partner Countries

Finance contracts worth 6,957,707,957 euros were signed between FEMIP and Mediterranean Partner Countries in the last five years, according to the latest figures from the European Investment Bank. A country-by-country breakdown, updated today, is available on the Bank’s website.

Algeria 255,498,958
Egypt 2,067,312,240
Palestine 55,000,000
Israel 395,000,000
Jordan 215,896,759
Lebanon 575,000,000
Morocco 1,221,000,000
Syria 715,000,000
Tunisia 1,379,950,000

Regional - North Africa 10,000,000

Mediterranean Countries 68,050,000

Lebanese assembly fails to pick president

The Lebanese parliament has failed to elect a new president. Speaker Nabih Berri said a two-thirds quorum had not been reached. The opposition boycotted the session.

Deputy parliamentary speaker Farid Makari announced that the session would be postponed to October 23.

Inside the chamber, there was a stark reminder of the realities of Lebanese politics, with large photographs of murdered MPs from the anti-Syrian majority placed on seats. The latest such killing took place just last week.

The pro-Syrian opposition want a deal on a consensus candidate before its deputies will attend. Lebanon is experiencing its worst political crisis since the civil war. Amid fears of further assassinations, thousands of troops and armed police guarded the parliament building.

A successor to pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud must be elected by November 24.

Anti-Syrian MP killed in Beirut car bomb

Antoine Ghanem, 64, a member of the Right-wing Christian Phalange Party, was killed along with eight other people in the attack in a Christian suburb of Beirut.

He was the eighth prominent anti-Syrian figure assassinated since 2005 and the attack came just six days before parliament was scheduled to meet to elect a new president in a deeply divisive vote.

"It is clear, lawmakers from the (anti-Syrian) majority are being liquidated," Ahmed Fatfat, a cabinet minister, said. He blamed the Syrian regime for the assassination, saying: "It is the only regime that does not want presidential elections in Lebanon to be held."

Parliament was due to meet on Tuesday to vote on a successor to pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud but rival political leaders have failed to agree on a consensus candidate, raising fears of further turmoil. Ghanem's death reduced the anti-Syrian coalition's majority to 68 members out of the now 127-member house, with numbers set to play a key role in the vote.

“The attack aims at destabilising Lebanon on the eve of Presidential elections,” says EU Presidency, adding that this “should not weaken the Lebanese people’s resolve to take a firm stand against violence. Those responsible for committing this hideous terrorist act must be promptly brought to justice. The Presidency urges all Lebanese parties and all actors in the region to refrain from any activities that would further endanger the political stability of Lebanon.”

Archimedes launched

Archimedes (so-called from the initials of its full name – Actions to Regenerate Cities and Help Innovative Mediterranean Economic Development Enhancing Sustainability) is one of nine projects taking place in the framework of the MED-PACT regional programme which is dedicated to cooperation among local authorities on the Southern and Northern shores of the Mediterranean. Its specific objectives are to assist the EU’s Mediterranean partner countries to ensure a more balanced and durable local development, via partnerships between cities and to promote better municipal planning and management.

The MED-PACT programme falls within the framework of the Barcelona Process which aims at promoting prosperity, democracy, stability and security in the Mediterranean basin. MED-PACT is a partnership programme between local authorities in the Mediterranean with a BUDGET of €5 million. Start Date: 2006 Duration: 3 years.

The MED-PACT programme meets a Committee of the Regions request in a 2003 Opinion for the need to support cooperation between local authorities within the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. It also meets one of the main recommendations of the Naples December 2003 Foreign Affairs Ministerial Conference of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership which called for the promotion of civil society partnerships in the region to give greater substance to the Barcelona Process.

The main objective of the programme is to encourage better understanding between civil society in the north and the south of the Mediterranean by developing cooperation, exchanges and dialogue between cities.

The specific objectives are:

• to assist the EU’s Mediterranean partner countries to ensure a more balanced and durable local development, via partnerships between cities
• to promote better municipal planning and management, involving all the city’s actors as necessary

Link

MEDSTAT II meeting

General Directors of the Mediterranean Partner Countries' National Statistics Institutes were in Brussels on September 6-7, 2007 at the invitation of EuropeAid and Eurostat for the first Partnership Group Meeting organised within the framework of the MEDSTAT II regional programme.

The aim of the meeting was to bring together all those involved in the project for a frank discussion about the results achieved so far and future challenges, as well as to start a dialogue on future statistical cooperation in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

Euro-Mediterranean statistical cooperation began in 1996 through the regional programme MEDSTAT. Ten years later (January 2006), MEDSTAT II, a three-year, €30 million programme, was launched with ten partner countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey). It deals with statistics in nine thematic sectors (Trade, National Accounts, Social Statistics, Energy, Agriculture, Environment, Tourism, transport and Migration) and three horizontal sectors (Training, Information System and Dissemination). The programme’s main objective is to strengthen the capacity of the partner countries’ National Statistics Institutes and each country’s own National Statistical System.

Nadine Labaki, la crainte du regard des autres

La jeune réalisatrice libanaise Nadine Labaki signe un joli film qui parle de la condition des femmes dans une société très rigide.
Caramel

Hezbollah Buying Up Land in Southern Lebanon

Hezbollah is buying large amounts of land in southern Lebanon as part of a huge reconstruction program it calls the “Building Jihad,” according to the Sunday Telegraph. The initiative is thought to be backed by Iran.

The area, just north of the Litani River and the UN-enforced buffer zone, is full of wooded valleys and strategic gorges, which Hezbollah fighters are fortifying in preparation for another war with Israel, the Telegraph said.

Ali Tajeddine, a Shiite construction tycoon and former Sierra Leone diamond trader, has purchased an arc of tracts surrounding Hezbollah’s stronghold in Chbail. The village, once inhabited by Christians, is now owned by Tajeddine and populated by Shiites. Outsiders are banned from entering the area, not by the Lebanese Army, but by Hezbollah.

Tajeddine is also thought to be behind the Shiite land-grab affecting half a dozen more Druze Muslim and Christian villages in the area. The former Sierra Leone diamond trader is suspected of having strong ties to Hezbollah and of financing a large portion of the “Building Jihad.”

The Hezbollah land-grab is also securing the village of Ahmediyya, which will create a region of Shiite-controlled territory stretching from Hezbollah’s south Lebanon stronghold to the Bekaa Valley. “It is part of Hezbollah’s plan to create a state within a state.”

The Trumpet

No clear winner in Lebanon votes

BBC

Lebanon is now facing its biggest political crisis since the end of its long civil war. It is trapped between the forces that look to Syria and those in the government who look West. The US-backed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said the weekend's by-elections "were a civilised response to political assassination".

But in truth they have changed very little. In fact they could even have cemented the divisions. Perhaps the only cause for celebration was the size of the turnout on Sunday. Despite concerns of further violence, people came to vote in their thousands.

The closest battle was in the Christian heartland of Metn - where they voted to replace the murdered MP Pierre Gemayel. Running for the vacant seat was Pierre's father, Amin Gemayel, a leading Christian figure, former president and staunch supporter of the anti-Syria government. The lesser known candidate, Dr Camille Khoury, stood for the opposition party of the other main Christian leader, General Michel Aoun.

In the end Mr Khoury took the seat by just 418 votes out of about 79,000 cast, a margin which many say undermines General's Aoun's leadership.

He had claimed - based on the results of parliamentary elections in 2005 - to enjoy 70% of the Christian vote. But this suggests he has gone backwards.

Gen Aoun is not a "pro-Syrian". In fact as prime minister in the 80s he fought the Syrians. But as a presidential candidate for the crucial upcoming election in September, he is the preferred choice of the pro-Syrian Shia Islamist group Hezbollah, which is allied to Damascus.

Crucially, the presidency is always reserved for the leading Christian Maronite. A closer look at this vote shows it was Amin Gemayel who took two-thirds of the Maronite vote. Victory for Gen Aoun's party, was only guaranteed by the minority Armenian Christians - it seems almost all of their 8,000 votes went with General Aoun's candidate.

It leaves the Christian community bitterly divided - and the future presidency very much in doubt. Both government and opposition will claim to have the Christian vote.

Bleak warning
In the other by-election in West Beirut, to replace Walid Eido, the vote went, as expected, to the Sunni candidate, put forward by the majority leader Saad Hariri.

But all in all, this will have been a disappointing night for the anti-Syrian government. In the past year, they have lost two seats to the assassins and only regained one of them.

The standoff between the anti-Syrian government and pro-Syrian opposition will continue, with little sign of any breakthrough.

Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister who is mediating between the two sides, has already warned that if they cannot find a compromise on many of the issues that divide them Lebanon could soon return to civil war.