Lebanese elections

Official results released a day after Lebanon's hotly-contested parliamentary election have confirmed the pro-Western coalition has held on to its majority. Interior Minister Ziad Baroud confirmed the 14 March coalition of Saad Hariri had won 71 seats in the 128-member body, one more than four years ago.

Hassan Nasrallah, head of militant movement Hezbollah, said he accepted the outcome. "I would like to congratulate all those who won, those in the majority and those in the opposition," he said. Hezbollah-led bloc won 58 seats.

The turnout was 54%, Mr Baroud said, the highest percentage among Lebanon's three million voters since the 1975-91 civil war. Lebanon is a country of deeply-fragmented religious sects, and this election broadly pitted Shia Muslim supporters of Hezbollah against Sunni Muslims and Druze supporting the 14 March coalition.

The crucial electoral showdown had been between Christian rivals, who although they make up only one-third of the population are constitutionally guaranteed an equal half share of parliamentary seats. The influential Christian Maronite community was split between established Western-orientated factions and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of former army chief Michel Aoun, which joined the pro-Syria faction in 2006.
Analysts say another fragile unity government is likely from this result.

bbc

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Solana and Presidency both hail smooth Lebanese elections

The elections in Lebanon are an important step in the democratic evolution of the Middle East, High Representative of the CFSP Javier Solana has said. Both Solana and the EU Presidency issued statements welcoming the peaceful and orderly way in which the parliamentary elections were held on 7 June.

Euromedinfo

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Obama pledges support for new Lebanon government

"The United States will continue to support a sovereign and independent Lebanon, committed to peace, including the full implementation of all United Nations Security Council resolutions," Obama said in a statement following the election victory by a pro-Western coalition against Hezbollah and its allies.

Reuters

Solana: Obama speech opens new page

US President Barack Obama’s speech in Cairo “will open a new page in relations with the Arab-Muslim world”, EU High Representative for the CFSP Javier Solana has told reporters, according to a Council press release.

“I found many things in this speech that represent a meeting of minds with what the European Union has been defending for some time,” he said, adding: “I think that together we – the EU, the US and the countries in the region – can begin to solve the many problems that face us in the Middle East.”

He said the climate created by the “remarkable” speech was very constructive. “Now, what we cannot do is fail. Now we have to really move, together, and try and to do what has to be done. There is no time to lose.”
http://www.euromedinfo.eu/site.168.news.en.5804.html

The EU's policy toward Syria: a costly wait and see approach

Comment By Ruth Hanau-SantiniEUOBSERVER / COMMENT
Given the lack of a coherent and comprehensive EU approach to Syria and its role in the Middle East, it would be useful to look the costs and benefits of developing a proper policy towards Damascus.

In 2004, the EU total assistance aid allocated to Syria reached €55 million. It was mainly for technical assistance, institution-building and democracy promotion. In the same year, after eight years of negotiations, the EU and Syria finalised an Association Agreement.

The sanctions imposed by the US against Damascus in May 2004, however, influenced some member states' willingness to sign the agreement. The UK, Germany and the Netherlands' insistence on inserting an additional clause dealing specifically with chemical weapons blocked the overall process. The deal was called off and economic relations continue to be ruled by a 1977 Co-operation Agreement. So despite Syria being a partner in the Barcelona process, it does not benefit from the European Neighbourhood instruments.

While the EU remains Syria's first trading partner, the relationship's intensity has significantly decreased in the aftermath of the US embargo. Far from being passive, Syria has diversified its economic and political relations with third countries. Ankara, already Damascus' second trade partner, has been particularly privileged, as symbolized by the opening of a Free Trade Area at the beginning of 2007.

In the coming years, Turkey could become Damascus' largest trading partner: its exports to Syria have already nearly tripled in the past 10 years, rising from roughly USD 270m in 1997 to over USD 600m in 2006. In addition to that, Turkey has become a political and military ally, the two having signed a military agreement in 2004 aimed at countering the danger of potential spill-overs from Iraq's Kurdish areas.

By acting in an un-coordinated manner, the EU has diminished its overall capacity for influence. Acknowledging this risk, in the spring of 2007, national capitals informally agreed to be represented by the EU High Representative, Javier Solana, towards Damascus. In reality, this has never materialized and foreign ministers have kept visiting Assad without offering either an EU- coordinated long-term strategic vision or real carrots.

The consequences of the US ban have been far-reaching: on the one hand Syria has reinforced political and economic ties with third countries, thereby limiting the potential leverage of the EU. On the other, the sanctions have caused an internal split within the Union with some member states afraid to alienate the US Middle Eastern project. This has had its downside, namely the indefinite postponing of the establishment of an EU comprehensive vision of the region.

To conclude, the costs of envisaging a common approach to Syria's potentially beneficial role in the region would cause irritation in Washington, as well as in Israel, with whom the EU is struggling to improve the tone of the relationship.

A shift from a wait-and-see approach to a pro-active one, on the other hand, would entail significant benefits, both politically and economically.

Economically, Syria is an important gateway for European trade in the Arab world. Politically, reaching an association agreement with Syria remains the main channel through which the EU can hope to influence democratic forces and modernization impulses within the country, by setting clear benchmarks associated to further economic involvement.

Secondly, the same card should be used to forge a common strategic vision over the means the Union is ready to deploy in order to increase Damascus' stakes in developing an autonomous foreign policy in the area, resisting Teheran's influence.

Brussels should not wait to have fully-fledged economic relations before adopting an overall strategic policy towards Syria, but should strive to develop both simultaneously.